NEW DELHI: Sticking to its previous prediction of ‘normal’ rainfall this monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday released its forecast for second half of the monsoon season (August-September) saying both the months may get normal rainfall — a clear indication that the rains in these two months will eliminate the deficit faced by the country during the first two months of the season (June-July). “Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August-September) is likely to be 100% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/-8%,” said the IMD in its forecast. The deficit that exists for the first two months is mainly due to huge deficit of 33% in a single month of June alone. Good rains in July had, however, reduced this deficit of June-July to 9%. As per the latest prediction, the rainfall during August is likely to be 99% of the LPA with a model error of +/- 9% as was predicted in June. The LPA of the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) is 42.83 cm (49% of the average rainfall of the monsoon season). “The probabilistic forecast suggests that the rainfall across the country during second half of Southwest Monsoon season is most likely to be normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) with a probability of 45%,” the IMD said. Overall, the season (June-September) rainfall in India as a whole is likely to be ‘normal’ (96% of the LPA with model error of +/-4%) as was predicted by the IMD in June. The coming two months are expected to be good as El Nino has entered a neutral phase.
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